Methodology

CLEAR / TENSE / WAIT / NO-TRADE

SignalX publishes an hourly BTC market-status contract before position selection. The state model is risk-first and fixed at publish time.

State logic

Each hourly BTC state is derived from a deterministic reading of volatility pressure, candle-based participation proxies, and trend context. The public contract is the archived hourly status payload, not a mutable dashboard estimate.

Read /trust for the exact proof boundary behind this hourly status surface.

CLEAR

Directional conditions are coherent and execution risk is controlled.

Favors selective participation when trend, participation pressure, and volatility are aligned within acceptable bounds.

TENSE

The market is tradable but conflict between features increases uncertainty.

Requires tighter risk controls, lower size, and faster invalidation criteria due to unstable directional edge.

WAIT

Conditions are not fully blocked, but directional evidence is incomplete or too fragile to trust yet.

Stand aside and wait for clearer confirmation instead of forcing a borderline setup into an execution decision.

NO-TRADE

Risk conditions dominate informational edge.

Capital preservation mode. Wait for state normalization rather than forcing low-quality setups.

Entropy in market intelligence

Entropy measures disorder in directional information. In low-entropy conditions, execution context is clearer and expectations are more stable. In high-entropy conditions, competing flows and volatility spikes reduce forecast reliability.

SignalX uses entropy as a regime guardrail, not a standalone trigger. Higher entropy pushes the framework toward TENSE, WAIT, or NO-TRADE, prioritizing capital protection over unnecessary activity.

Institutional analytics interpretation

Professional decision frameworks separate signal generation from risk governance. The status layer is intentionally plain-language so portfolio managers, analysts, and execution teams can align on the same operating picture before allocating risk.

The public endpoint now exposes provenance fields such as `publish_kind`, `publish_role`, and `status_selection_mode` so the hourly BTC status surface can be traced back to the backend publish path.

Preserve consistency across discretionary and systematic workflows.
Reduce narrative drift by anchoring decisions to documented state conditions.
Improve post-trade review quality through fixed-time context snapshots.

Feature breakdown

vol_z

Volatility Z-score

Standardized volatility relative to its historical baseline. Elevated values signal unstable risk transfer.

flow_delta

Flow Delta Proxy

SignalX currently uses a candle-pressure proxy derived from the archived market snapshot, not a direct aggressor-tape feed.

taker_ratio

Taker Participation Ratio

Archived participation balance inside the stored snapshot feature set. This public page should not be read as a claim of full depth-of-book coverage.

The hourly BTC route, verification route, and current proof limits are summarized on /trust.